CHF 700 million more: why France’s Swiss watch boom raises questions

Swiss watch exports to France rose by 80 per cent in the first nine months of 2026, with official federal statistics recording shipments worth almost CHF 1.7 billion — more than CHF 700 million above the same period a year earlier. France has suddenly become the industry’s second-largest export market, behind the United States. Yet the record reflects, at least partly, a change in customs declarations rather than a corresponding buying spree among French customers.

At least one major Swiss watchmaker changed the destination country it enters on customs paperwork a few months ago. Instead of the country for which a watch is ultimately intended, it now lists France. Some of those watches, however, are only stored there temporarily before being forwarded to other markets. Customs authorities object to the practice, raising questions about how reliably the current country-by-country figures reflect the industry’s markets.

A record rise — and sharp falls elsewhere

Taken in isolation, the French figures suggest an exceptional boom. Recorded Swiss watch exports to France have never been higher. An increase of 80 per cent over the first nine months changes not just one country’s position but the ranking of the industry’s leading markets.

Other European countries, meanwhile, show steep declines. Shipments to Spain were down 38 per cent over the same period compared with a year earlier. Belgium recorded a fall of 34 per cent and the Netherlands 28 per cent. Other countries also registered declines.

Those contrasting movements are crucial to interpreting the figures. If a shipment is newly attributed to France, although the watch later travels to Spain, for example, the French total rises. The ultimate destination, by contrast, loses an export that would previously have been recorded there. This can explain part of the shift between markets without any change in the watch’s journey to its final customer.

The precise size of that statistical effect remains unclear. The available figures establish neither that the entire French increase stems from the new declarations nor that the declines elsewhere are wholly attributable to them. The percentages alone therefore offer no reliable measure of how demand has developed in the markets concerned.

An established hub, not a new distribution centre

France has long served as a distribution hub for Switzerland’s watch industry. Some watches shipped there are sold domestically, while a large proportion subsequently move on to other markets. Routing goods through France is nothing new. What has changed, at least at one major manufacturer, is how those shipments appear on customs forms.

The sudden rise had prompted speculation within the industry that France was being developed as a new distribution location, possibly with potential US tariffs in mind. But the major manufacturers’ responses do not support that explanation: none has set up a new distribution centre in France.

The distinction matters. An additional warehouse or a new distribution structure would represent an operational change. A different country entered on a customs form, however, can substantially shift the statistics even when the existing hub continues to perform the same role. That statistical effect is now at the centre of the dispute.

Why customs authorities object

The rules require customs paperwork to identify the goods’ destination, not an intermediate warehouse in a third country. In the customs authorities’ view, listing France as a transit hub when a watch is intended for another market does not meet that requirement.

Why the declarations were changed is unclear. Nor is it yet possible to establish conclusively whether several companies are following the same practice. What is established is a methodological change at at least one major Swiss manufacturer. Any further conclusions about the motives would be speculative.

The dispute is therefore about more than a technical formality. Export statistics are intended to make developments comparable over time. If the country assigned to a shipment changes without that being taken into account when the figures are interpreted, the old and new country totals no longer share the same basis. An apparent boom and an apparent slump can then be, in part, two sides of the same reassignment.

What the figures mean for Switzerland

For Switzerland’s heavily export-oriented watch industry, a reliable understanding of its markets is particularly important. In the watchmaking regions along the Jura arc, too, it matters whether a market is genuinely taking more watches or shipments are simply being recorded differently. The French record alone is therefore not evidence of additional demand, nor does it justify conclusions about a corresponding increase in the use of Swiss production capacity.

Customs authorities consider another revision of the statistics possible. Future declarations could also revert to listing the final customer’s country rather than France as the destination. Whether and when either change will happen remains open.

France could consequently lose ground in the rankings just as quickly as it gained it. Until the allocation of shipments is clarified, its second place remains, above all, a position in the official export statistics — one whose economic significance cannot be taken at face value.